Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 22.861893 26.998086 32.118023 39.089243 48.619363 61.668318 8.184907e+01
2024-12-29 18.022891 22.683690 29.090422 39.030236 55.139069 82.721263 1.415122e+02
2025-01-05 14.937413 19.457354 26.043495 37.085827 57.063726 97.307477 2.108472e+02
2025-01-12 12.639941 16.809723 23.107475 34.203650 55.830542 104.930379 2.813260e+02
2025-01-19 11.051964 14.932397 20.957874 32.001452 54.893621 112.667198 3.786046e+02
2025-01-26 11.165299 15.618799 22.976117 37.756927 73.451996 194.457174 1.691912e+03
2025-02-02 10.733547 15.359679 23.325002 40.389914 86.664142 290.986755 2.071526e+04
2025-02-09 9.761732 14.084762 21.642307 38.231736 85.331427 319.215940 6.694197e+06
2025-02-16 9.396622 13.790571 21.719310 40.048109 97.689479 482.228021 NaN
2025-02-23 8.906782 13.223507 21.184172 40.271031 105.039345 664.834363 NaN
2025-03-02 8.443939 12.657287 20.570325 40.145257 111.239328 916.711093 NaN
2025-03-09 8.119051 12.306998 20.342489 40.978754 122.591488 1522.706294 NaN
2025-03-16 7.555263 11.507172 19.159874 39.137357 121.256114 1889.933731 NaN
2025-03-23 7.188353 11.044466 18.639365 39.081707 129.624485 3504.758910 NaN
2025-03-30 6.720287 10.355173 17.554770 37.133384 126.122123 4338.083575 NaN
2025-04-06 6.225302 9.584877 16.228905 34.245749 115.553088 3706.410304 NaN
2025-04-13 5.818795 8.960487 15.175643 32.039533 108.258205 3523.022002 NaN
2025-04-20 5.993501 9.449147 16.609720 37.805790 159.059195 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.931214 9.472223 17.001506 40.444003 196.820186 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.610592 8.961091 16.086745 38.281528 186.525884 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.521626 8.907814 16.256914 40.101510 222.460309 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.358402 8.692949 16.012903 40.324880 242.305572 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.190340 8.457901 15.696554 40.198853 258.579375 NaN NaN